US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the democratically governed island by force, if needed, people familiar with US thinking said. 

Why it matters

The main reasons include delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign as well as Beijing’s eagerness to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 election, which some Chinese officials hope could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control, according to two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with the matter.